Author: Karl Page 1 of 4

In January 2021 we have seen total industry revenue decrease by 15% when compared to December 2020, while this is quite normal as the festive season comes to an end and majority of South Africans return to work what stands out is that total revenue has decreased by 32% in January 2021 when compared to January 2020. The partial level 3 lockdown from 28 December 2020 and lifted on 2 February 2021 has had a huge effect on the industry as a whole and seen us backslide to August/September 2020 levels. On average businesses saw 34% less client visits which resulted in 23% less retail revenue and 33% service revenue. The clients who did visit spent on average 11% than they did a year ago. The hair industry is fairing slightly better than the beauty industry, it has also been more consistent over the last 7 months. Staff losses have been greater in the beauty industry with an average of 3 less therapists per location vs the hair industry of 1 less for the month of January 2021.

The effects of normal seasonal decreases and a month in lockdown are plain to see. Some business will not be able to sustain the loss in revenue and close their doors, this in turn will create opportunities for the businesses who are able navigate through these challenges as well as entrepreneurs and groups looking to acquire running concerns.

These stats are drawn from the ESP client base that make use of our Business Intelligence service. These businesses owners are actively involved in their businesses and use the BI to track and understand the trends which allow them to formulate and implement strategies that will make a meaningful difference to the bottom line.

To find out how to implement strategies to improve your revenue and monitor the results contact the ESP Connect team info@espconnect.africa.

Learn more about ESP by visiting their website HERE.

Weekly/Monthly Covid Update

This is how the situation looks in Africa and we are at the top of the list as probably the most western urbanized country in Africa

Vaccinations are the next order of business…

Israel is clearly following a Blue Ocean strategy

I’m trusting there is enough a “boer maak a plan” thinking in SA that that links with how the “Jewish have made a plan” ….enough persecution survival complex to benefit us all 😁  (i.e how to survive against all odds).

I understand these are quite broad statements that might offend some if they take it out of context and into cultural and race differences in our very politically sensitive country – Black Lives Matter – Let me be clear.

We need to link the numbers back to what might be the cause for Israel’s ability to respond so proactively and learn from them. This is the purpose of Business Intelligence.

The issue is we as humanity are being tested and survival is at stake. Israel has survived despite the odds or even the right to exist – we can see the data reflecting a very powerful will to survive COVID.

THE KEY POINT is you want your business to Survive and have and also have similarly impressive response level that way exceeds your competitors (countries in Israel’s Case).

ESP Business Intelligence – Wellness Industry Statistics

ESP Wellness Industry BI report:

In December 2020 the hair industry has increased revenue by 3% when compared to November 2020 while the Beauty industry has seen a 8% decline for the same period.

After seeing massive gains last month the beauty industry has back-tracked somewhat and is now posting results that are more in line with what we are seeing in the hair industry.

As a whole revenue is down by 17% when comparing December 2020 to December 2021. In November this was sitting at 18% so the improvement is incremental. What I would like to highlight here is that the number of clients visiting has been 25% less, which is the average for the last 3 months, but this has only resulted in a 17% less revenue.

As this picture has evolved from July 2020 to now the month on month and year on year the improvements are becoming smaller and more hard fought. If you haven’t taken action in your business to increase the per visit spend of the clients who are visiting then you are behind the curve.

To find out how to implement strategies to improve your revenue and monitor the results contact the ESP Connect team info@espconnect.africa.

These stats are drawn from the ESP client base that make use of our Business Intelligence service. These businesses owners are actively involved in their businesses and use the BI to track and understand the trends which allow them to formulate and implement strategies that will make a meaningful difference to the bottom line.

If you want to find out more about salon software and business intelligence that can make a real difference to your business, email info@espconnect.africa.

Learn more about ESP by visiting their website HERE.

U.S. Citizens are Still Able to Return to the United States Despite a Presidential Proclamation Suspending Entry for Immigrant and Non-Immigrants in South Africa.

President Biden announced that effective at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on January 30, 2021, immigrant and non-immigrant entry into the United States will be suspended for individuals who were physically present within the Republic of South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.  Please note that this proclamation does not apply to U.S. citizens and contains multiple exceptions including for lawful permanent residents of the United States and some non-citizen family members.  All travellers to the United States, including U.S. citizens, must provide proof of a negative COVID-19 test to airlines prior to departure.

Thankfully SA is off this list:

Looks Like we are heading the Right way in SA Folks… Not like the USAor UK

This has been the Weekly/Monthly Covid Weather Report

Be Safe and Prosper – Collective Corporation.

It speaks of Hope.
Hope is the flame that creates the light.

It is from the young lady (poet) who read her Poem/Song at Bidens inauguration and if the USA represents one thing, it is the most dynamic (Blue Ocean Strategy country) in the world. Innovation is it’s hallmark.

The last 4 years in the USA has been like the previous 8 under Zuma here which led us to an economic recession just before COVID hit… We feel this painfully everyday with the Rolling Blackouts.

Yesterday for me represented a time of change symbolized by the inauguration like when the Berlin wall was torn down and Nelson Released and the IRA & UK found peace in the early 90s

Hopefully right now we are swinging into a more Wellness orientated world where fake news and idiotic tweets are not the standard but decency (democracy) and this will help our Wellness Industry to prosper as it has over the last 30 years.

Collective Wellness is the key to humanity going forward and COVID is giving us a sharp lesson in this.

Hope is the flame that creates the light.

Once again I reiterate this follows what Spain did at the end of summer. (October)

Spain being the coastal belt everyone flocks to. Just as in SA everyone from the interior flocks to the coastal areas.

The problem this wasn’t enough. The numbers didn’t come down fast enough …

So they locked down the provinces next which wasn’t enough and locked everyone down to the suburbs.

Which finally worked …

Because as the end of this it is stated: Everyone has to take responsibility to curb the spread.

You me and the next person have to speak out and wearing masks over our noses being the key.

Government doesn’t want to close businesses.

Only in the countries like the UK where people didn’t take this 2nd wave threat seriously did they close personal care on 20 December 2020.

I’m trusting the message gets through because here in Spain Personal care never shutdown….

Live and learn.
Spread the word.
Teach your staff, clients & friends how to be safe to be well.

🔊 Weekly/Monthly Covid Update

Everything taking place with Covid-2 in Spain and Europe is taking place in SA.

The 1 million infected mark is the yardstick for lockdown intensifying as Government has no choice.

The only good news is that I’m hoping our Wellness Industry is seen as being responsible – unlike restaurants with alcohol in the mix…

I’m hoping government locks down new year to send a clear message to the irresponsible &  youth so that in turn our business is spared.

⏱️ The National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) will reportedly meet this week, as South Africa continues to see record daily Covid-19 infections, rapidly approaching the 1 million confirmed cases.

As of 26 December, South Africa has reported a total of 994,911 Covid-19 cases, falling just short of the 1 million mark. There were 11,552 new daily cases reported, after two record increases of over 14,000 cases on Thursday and Friday this week.

There were also 256 new deaths, taking the total to 26,521, while recoveries are now at 839,194, leaving the country with a balance of 129,196 active cases.

The surge in cases has been driven by more gatherings over the festive season, as well as a more transmissible variant of the virus that has been discovered in South Africa.

According to the Sunday Times, citing a government insider, president Cyril Ramaphosa will recall cabinet ministers from their holidays to hold an urgent meeting on Tuesday (29 December) to address the crisis.

While it is not yet clear what restrictions will be modified at the meeting, a review could see:

• Lowering the limits on the number of people allowed at gatherings;
• Restrictions on movement;
• Closing of borders;
• Restrictions on the trade of alcohol.

Tourism minister Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane also warned that restaurants could face more restrictions if they do not adhere to the current lockdown regulations, the paper said.

The NCCC meeting follows an alert from health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize on Wednesday (23 December), that lockdown restrictions would have to be reviewed to combat the alarming surge seen in the second wave of the virus.

Mkhize said that the coronavirus has continued to spread exponentially and that the rate of spread is much faster than the first wave.

“We must warn South Africans that we will need to review the current restrictions and consider further measures to ensure that we curb this alarming rate of spread,” he said.

Dr Zweli Mkhize

Mkhize said that all provinces, with the exception of the Eastern Cape, continued to report an increase in their number of cases. Kwazulu-Natal, the Western Cape, and Gauteng reported the largest increase in cases – comprising 81% of the total new cases reported.

“Therefore it will be important for us to evaluate the situation, identify hotspots in these areas and make recommendations based on these findings and the outcomes of what has been implemented in the hotspots that have been identified so far,” Mkhize said.

Hospitals, both private and public, are reporting that they are filling up quickly, with some already at capacity. Making matters worse, is that a lot of hospitals are operating on thinner staff due to the holiday period – who will now bear the brunt of the second wave.

Health experts and authorities have appealed to South Africans to keep practicing social distancing and following lockdown protocols.

🔊 The New measures announced yesterday in the UK are based on a new strain of COVID that has mutated. Our personal care industry is now in lockdown in the UK.

Spread the word to practice safety and masks are the key plus everything else.

They didn’t adhere to these protocols in their summer … Don’t make the same mistake.

The youths lack of regard was the loose cannon in Europe’s summer of 2020!

Learn from their mistakes – we can’t afford another hard lockdown … Financially nor Psychologically.

A new variant of the COVID-19 virus, known as 501.V2, is driving infection rates in areas of South Africa.  This discovery is gaining increased international attention and currently as many as 15 countries have banned flights and travelers who have spent time in The Republic of South Africa in the last 10 days.

🔊 Covid-2

Beaches and public parks in the Western Cape and Northern Cape will remain open. Beaches can only be visited from 09:00 and 18:00.

Sale of alcohol curbed:

Retailers may only sell alcohol from 10:00 and 18:00 from Monday to Thursday, but wineries may continue to offer tastings over weekends.

Alcohol consumption in all public spaces is strictly prohibited.

New curfew, and bars and restaurants must close earlier.

A curfew has been extended and will now be from 23:00 to 04:00. Bars and restaurants must close at 22:00 to allow staff to get home.

“We should all remember that the hours of curfew also apply to Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve. This means that we will all need to make changes to the way in which we celebrate these occasions.”

Alcohol sales:

Monday to Thursday: 10am – 6pm

Size of gatherings:

Gatherings, including religious gatherings, may not be attended by more than 100 people for indoor and 250 for outdoor events.

Ramaphosa said that: “the sad truth about this pandemic is that festivals, concerts and parties are proving to be sources of infection and illness, and even sources of death”.

The total number of people inside a building may not exceed 50% of the capacity.

All gatherings must show social distancing measures, and provide hand sanitiser.

All post-funeral gatherings are prohibited.

Stricter Enforcement of Alert Level 1 Restrictions:

Drivers and operators of any form of public transport must ensure that all passengers must wear masks. “The more we travel, the greater the potential for the spread of the virus,” Ramaphosa warned.

Owners of buildings, and managers of offices and stores must also make sure that everyone entering wear masks.

Those who do not enforce compliance will be liable for a fine or imprisonment of up to six months.

“These festive season restrictions will be reviewed in early January based on the state of the pandemic across the country,”

There can no longer be any doubt that South Africa has entered a second wave of Coronavirus infections. If we do not act urgently and act together, the second wave will be even more severe than the first wave,” Ramaphosa warned.

For the first time, most of the new infections are recorded among young people 15 to 18 ages.

Industry BI

We are seeing the continued trend of Beauty improving steadily compared to the hair industry that made a quick gain post lock down.

The figures make sense in terms of the season and optimism and by following protocol keep confidence in the wellness sector for clients to keep coming in despite any 2nd wave fears.

📈 ESP BI Analysis

Our industry as a whole has seen and 6% increase in revenue in November 2020 when compared to October 2020. We are still down 18% when we compare total revenue in November 2020 to November 2019.

The highlight here is the tremendous progress we have made since the lifting of the lockdown in July when we were down 41%.

The number of clients visiting in November is still less compared to last year, down by 27%, but the clients that are visiting are spending much more on average particularly on retail.

The hair industry has made some inroads and increased total revenue in November 2020 by 5% compared to October 2020 bit the star performer is the beauty industry which has seen a 11% increase. The medical aesthetics sector is performing really well and some businesses are even showing year on year increases.

These stats are drawn from the ESP client base that make use of our Business Intelligence service.

These businesses owners are actively involved in their businesses and use the BI to track and understand the trends which allow them to formulate and implement strategies that will make a meaningful difference to the bottom line.

⚙️ What phase 2 lockdown looks like…

Coming out in Spain:

👉New measures
The phase 2 de-escalation is divided into three periods:

 ➡️From Saturday December 12 to Thursday December 17:
• Mobility between municipalities of a province is allowed.
• Trade can open until 21:00
• Hospitality until 18:00

 ➡️From Friday December 18 to January 10:
• Mobility between provinces
• Shops open during normal hours
• Hospitality until 18:00 and from 20:00 to 22:00.
• Curfew: from 23:00 to 06:00

 ➡️From December 23 to January 6:
• Entry and exit from Andalusia is allowed for family units.
• Maximum 10 people on December 24 and 31.
• Curfew until 1:30 am.

The good news is things look good as a whole!

🔊 COVID-II – The 2nd Wave is here in SA!!!

Pay attention move fast – as I’ve been giving news from Europe SA was always in the pipeline … Sad news … it’s hitting us in SA 2 months before I anticipated. We saw it starting first in Mossel Bay and the Garden Route & now Cape Town is picking up fast and the death rate is climbing which is the basis of the final analysis. It started in the Cape in the first wave and it’s doing a similar resurgence.

It’s starting now to attract attention – I was reviewing the Covid Weather late last night, looking at the Global outlook from US/India etc – Brazil is the key and spiking (similar weather and economic status) –  I holding back from sharing this insight for a few days as no one likes to be the messenger carrying bad news … but it’s not – all bad – I will explain below the Collective Corporation Advertisement 😄

The Collective Corporation is going to take a new shape again so please join that locked WhatsApp group (Only Industry Expert Admins can Post) if you want more of our insights and analysis:

https://chat.whatsapp.com/BwkounMzE7cEyu4RIL1XKh

Please share this link in the industry and beyond.

The good news is COVID-II won’t be the same as the previous lockdown.

It will be a DISTRIBUTED lockdown.

What I mean by that is they will encourage non-essential travel and promote people staying in their suburbs and we will because we don’t want to go back to hard lockdown. The fatigue is too heavy on our psyche’s we will obey to void hard lockdown.

Where I am in Spain, I can’t drive to the sea 15min away. I can see it but it crosses a municipality – police man blocks randomly. I cannot drive into the city 20 mins away. Other than this life is normal but with a mask glued to your face outside or you get a +R6000 fine or also if you cross your suburb without a valid document to support it.

The GOOD NEWS is that the Hair / Beauty / Wellness industry isn’t shutdown at all … here nor as I last saw in the UK.

So that bodes well for us – As we have said in the CC all along – COMMON SENSE – Wear a mask – don’t relax – the Vaccine will only get to us late 2021 early 2022 … they simply can’t produce enough.

Lastly – Esoterically – We had AIDS – we had SARS – We have COVID – There will be more … this is the new normal. Diseases exist because its sole purpose is to find a way to bypass our defences.

As the wellness Industry we have shown people how to Form Healthy Connections.

Karl Markwald

CSO (Chief Strategic Officer)

ESP Connect